A bill by Assemblyman Marc Levine that requires state officials to consider the effects of climate change when assigning housing mandates has been signed into law.
Assembly Bill 1445 requires organizations such as the Association of Bay Area Governments to weigh such factors as emergency evacuation route capacity, wildfire risk and sea-level rise before deciding how much new housing to require of counties and municipalities.
“As the state faces a housing crisis, it also faces a climate crisis,” said Levine, a Democrat in Greenbrae who represents Marin and part of Sonoma County. “Vast areas of California are increasingly vulnerable to wildfires, sea level rise and severe drought. We must ensure that badly needed investments in housing are not placed at risk by the climate crisis.”
Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the law on Sept. 30.
State law requires the Department of Housing and Community Development to conduct periodic housing needs assessments throughout California. The assessments are then given to regional councils such as the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), which assign a proportionate amount of the housing to the municipalities and counties within their boundaries.
The process occurs on an eight-year cycle. ABAG has assigned Marin County and its cities and towns 14,220 new residences between 2023 and 2031.
Prior to AB 1445, state law required the methodology for housing mandates to address economic, environmental, equity and transportation-related factors. The law said nothing about dangers posed by climate change.
The analysis of the bill for the Legislature noted that ABAG, while not required, did consider the impacts of climate change when it was deciding how to distribute its 2023-2031 housing assignments.
“Almost all of ABAG’s member jurisdictions have a moderate to high climate change impact risk, therefore ABAG ultimately decided to focus on existing factors, such as access to high opportunity areas and proximity to jobs by automobiles and public transit,” the analysis said.
The state has prioritized assigning housing to high opportunity zones — areas with access to jobs, good schools and other amenities — as a means of affirming fair housing.
“I was on the ABAG housing methodology committee, and it was most frustrating experience because they identified high opportunity areas regardless of whether or not the property lent itself to development,” said Novato Councilwoman Pat Eklund.
“I think Levine’s bill will make a difference,” she said.
Marin County has assembled a list of 79 sites where 3,929 new residences could be built in unincorporated areas. An environmental impact report studying the viability of those sites is in the works.
Senate Bill 389, signed into law in 2015, requires jurisdictions to update the safety element of their general plans in tandem with their housing element updates. The housing elements lay out how counties and municipalities will meet their state housing mandates.
In joint meetings of Marin’s supervisors and planning commissioners, it became apparent that safety elements take a back seat to housing elements under current law.
For example, Marin officials were told that a lack of water is not a basis for the county failing to meet its housing assignment. They were also told that high fire risk is not a good enough reason for falling short of the state’s target.
Carol Rice, a consultant hired to help the county write its safety element, told county officials during a meeting in April that approximately 60,000 acres, or 18% of the county’s land area, falls within the “wildland urban interface.” Based on 2018-2019 tax assessor data, there are some 69,400 Marin homes valued at $58.5 billion within that zone.
At the same meeting, Leslie Lacko, a county planner, said a Marin Wildfire Prevention Authority study evaluating fire evacuation routes based on risk is in the works but would not be completed in time for use in the safety element. County supervisors are expected to vote on approval of the safety element on Jan. 24.
