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Lessons from Hong Kong
Experts and government officials say that the worst of the Omicron wave in Hong Kong may have passed. The city announced today that it would lift its ban on international flights and cut quarantine times for vaccinated residents who arrive from overseas in half, to 7 days.
But as my colleague Benjamin Mueller reports, getting past the crest of the wave has come at a significant cost. Hong Kong’s death toll per capita, once far lower than those of Western nations, is no longer exceptional. A month ago, the Covid-19 death rate in the U.S. was 90 times as high as that of Hong Kong. By Monday, the cumulative U.S. toll was three and a half times as high as Hong Kong’s.
As the U.S. braces for a potential new wave and China battles its biggest outbreak in two years, scientists are looking to Hong Kong for clues about the future of the pandemic. One big takeaway: In the era of Omicron and BA.2 — an even more infectious subvariant — vaccinating as many older people as possible should be the top priority, experts said. In Hong Kong, a fixation on “zero Covid” — shared with mainland China — meant that vaccination wasn’t a priority, and many older people fell prey to misinformation about the safety of the vaccines. Before Omicron surged, less than a quarter of people age 80 and over had been given two doses. That lesson is most pressing for China, where vaccination in older age groups appears to be lagging and there is little immunity from earlier infections. But it’s also important for the U.S., where subpar vaccination and booster rates in older people have left scientists concerned about a potential surge of BA.2 cases. More than a third of Americans 65 and over have not gotten a booster shot. However, scientists do not expect the U.S. to face nearly as serious a situation in the coming months as Hong Kong did, partly because so many more Americans were infected by the coronavirus during earlier waves. “In the U.S., case declines are losing momentum and starting to plateau,” writes the epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina. “There may even be signs of increasing trends in the Northeast. But, for now, many pockets still have low transmission. Enjoy it! And prepare for the possibility of putting your mask on if needed. This is also the perfect time to get boosted, get vaccinated and order your second set of free antigen tests.” New York’s pandemic timeline
On March 1, 2020, New Yorkers had no idea what was in store. The governor of New York said on that day that there would be “community spread” of the coronavirus but that there was “no reason for concern.” The mayor of New York City said that the virus “could be anywhere” but told residents to go about their normal lives. It sounded reasonable.
Everyone knows what quickly unfolded: A mighty was city silenced. There were thousands of deaths, bodies stacked in freezer trucks and half a million people out of work.
Two years and 40,000 deaths later, rips and rifts remain in the social fabric. Something has been lost, and yet the dire predictions of a city damaged beyond repair have been proved wrong.
As Plague Year 3 dawns, The New York Times looked back on the pandemic in the city. Infection rates have plummeted, but the arrival of a new subvariant is also a reminder that the pandemic is not over. We know that there is no going back to “before.” What else we’re following
What you’re doingThe mask mandate at my 12-year-old daughter’s school was lifted yesterday. She was a little worried she’d be the only one still wearing a mask, not because wearing a mask has been a burden to her but because no seventh grader likes to stand out. She cheered up at drop-off when she realized a vast majority of kids were still wearing masks. At the end of the day she reported nothing much had changed; the kids who had been wearing their masks correctly all year are still wearing them, and the kids who had been wearing them as chin straps are now letting their chins fly free. — Liz, Waco, Texas Let us know how you’re dealing with the pandemic. Send us a response here, and we may feature it in an upcoming newsletter. Angela Jimenez compiled photos for this briefing. Email your thoughts to briefing@nytimes.com. Did a friend forward you the briefing? Sign up here.
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